Every homeowner asks the same question right now. How's the market? The agents winning listings in 2026 are the ones who can answer it in plain English, with real numbers, in under five minutes. Here is the answer worth memorising.
Rates are flat, and that is the story
The 30-year fixed is hovering around the mid sixes and every major forecast has it staying in the low to mid sixes into 2027. There is no cavalry coming. Sellers waiting for 4% rates are waiting for a market that no longer exists, and buyers who accept that are already back out shopping. In fact, the average mortgage payment is roughly $180 cheaper than it was a year ago, which quietly rebuilds demand while everyone else watches headlines.
Inventory is up, but not where you think
National inventory has grown about 5% year over year, yet it remains roughly 13% below 2019 levels, and only 15 states have recovered to pre-pandemic supply. Texas is up over 30% while New York and Pennsylvania are down more than 40%. That is why prices keep rising in some towns and softening two zip codes away. The market is not one market. It is thousands.
What this means for sellers
Median prices hit a record high this spring and the average homeowner has gained around $128,000 in equity over six years. Sellers still hold real wealth. What has changed is pricing power. Homes priced with precision sell in the first two to three weeks. Homes priced on hope chase the market down. That conversation is exactly where a great listing agent earns their fee.
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